Fetching the models…
Storm risk map
Each site shows its storm chance for the day and the hours it is most likely. Tap a site here or below for the hour-by-hour read.
By site
Chance of a storm at the site that day · severe chance · likely window · what the models flag.
Hour by hour
Bars are the storm chance each hour; the red line is the severe chance. Tap an hour for the numbers behind it.
Week ahead
Storm-day chance per site. Numbers fade in meaning past day 3 — the colour tells you where to look, not what to book.
Scorecard
Each morning's call is locked in at 6 am and checked that night. No quiet edits.
Report what happened today
One tap from whoever was on site. This is the ground truth the scorecard trusts first.
How this works. Seven global weather models (ECMWF, ICON, GFS, the Bureau's ACCESS-G, UK Met Office, GEM, JMA) and up to 100 ensemble members (ECMWF ENS, GFS ensemble, ACCESS-GE) are read every 20 minutes for every site through Open-Meteo. For each hour the page scores the ingredients forecasters use — instability (CAPE, lifted index), the cap (CIN), low-level moisture (dewpoint), mid-level lapse rate, deep-layer shear, and each model's own rain and thunderstorm signal — into a storm chance, and the CAPE × shear product into a severe chance with hail, damaging-wind and heavy-rain flags. The chance you see is a weighted blend across models and ensemble members; confidence is how many answered and how far they agree. The synopsis and each site's call are written from those numbers, not by hand. It is not a warning service. A Bureau of Meteorology severe thunderstorm warning overrides anything here — check BOM warnings on a storm day. Nothing on this page is fetched from BOM: the Bureau blocks automated access from cloud servers and this service respects that; radar-based verification is written and waiting on their agreement. Until then the scorecard's truth is the crew tap-in, with the model's own after-the-fact read as a fallback. Data via Open-Meteo; map OpenFreeMap © OpenMapTiles, data from OpenStreetMap contributors.